The Honda Classic 2007By Jeremy Church

The West Coast swing ended on a dull note. Not to take anything away from Geoff Ogilvy’s impressive return to the Accenture Match Play Championship finals, especially after a lackluster start to 2007, or Swede Henrik Stenson’s second straight win, but Tiger’s exit upon missing a 4-footer because of a ball mark took the wind out of the tournament’s sails.
Mickelson, Els, Vijay and other stars were already long gone when Tiger bowed out. By Sunday we had 36 holes between Ogilvy, best known as the guy who won last year’s U.S. Open because Colin Montgomerie, Jim Furyk and Mickelson lost it, and Stenson, who is probably not known to the average sports fan. To the average golf fan he may be known as a pretty good young player who spends most of his time on the European Tour.
Now it’s onward and forward to the Sunshine State. I’m always happy when the Tour makes its way to Florida after two months in Hawaii, California and Arizona. It means no more pro-ams, no more deserts, no more George Lopez and it means we’re geographically one state south of Augusta National.
There are schedule changes and name changes this year (imagine that). The biggest change is that The Players Championship is in May, not March. I like this. If you look at TPC as a major in terms of atmosphere and competition, it gives us five straight months of majors. Until this year, after the Masters we had to wait until June before the U.S. Open. Dipping back down to Ponte Vedra in May will give us nice major continuity.
This week’s tournament has the same name but it’s on a different course, PGA National. Wind is always a factor in Florida, though like Andrew Magee I don’t see anything more than coincidence in the fact that several players who’ve won the Honda Classic in the past went on to win that year’s British Open (the question was posed on the Golf Channel’s show The Approach).
Last week: I put the unit and a half on Tiger to win it all. It hurts. I won four consecutive weeks to start the season, and had many close calls in the outrights. Now, after a second straight -$1500 week, I’m down to -$1913 for the season. It doesn’t take much to go the wrong way if the head-to-heads don’t come through.
I like the fresh approach this week. No big dogs in this tournament, unless you count Furyk in that category, and it’s a new course (new for the tournament). It’s a par 70 but only 7,000 and change. Negotiating with the wind will likely be the key to success.
Take Jeff Quinney (40-1), 1/6 unit: Quinney had three straight top-10s going into the Nissan Open and was a 100-1 shot. At Riviera he added a fourth straight top-10 (T9) and now he’s down to 40-1. Those odds don’t look so good now but it’s hard not to take him. We don’t have a full sense of his game after five tournaments, meaning that if there are hitches they haven’t been exposed yet. The sample is small, but he’s been playing really well in every phase of the game so far.
Take Robert Allenby (20-1), 1/6 unit: Allenby also has four top-10s in five tournaments in 2007. He’s currently second in Scoring Average. Unlike the wild card factor with Quinney, Allenby is experienced and has won tournaments. I think he’s a putt or two away from victory.
Take David Toms (16-1), 1/6 unit: Toms is easy to root for. Seems like a genuinely nice guy, has a bit of aw shucks to his gait. His game is one of the more consistently good ones out there. You have to love the silky smooth putting stroke. His lack of length off the tee doesn’t usually hinder him, especially when he’s got the magic 5-wood working. Expect to see it if the wind is up this week.
In the head-to-head, take Allenby to finish higher than Luke Donald (9-10), 1 unit: This is about confidence factor. If I had to pick between the two in any tournament, it would be Allenby every time. He instills confidence. Not that Donald doesn’t, but he lacks the experience. Allenby has won 19 times total, 4 on the PGA Tour. Donald has won 4 total, 2 on Tour.
(Odds from www.expekt.com)
Jeremy Church is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Jeremy_Church.htm